The road to the championship this year will not be fore the weary

After the lockout ended, remember how exciting basketball was in the first few days of the NBA season? Christmas day felt like the playoffs between the Knicks two-point win over the Celtics and the Bulls' come-from-behind victory over the Lakers by a single point in L.A. as both games were intense and entertaining. Heading into the season without a lengthy training camp, I anticipated ugly, discombobulated basketball but instead was pleasantly surprised as we were treated to some fantastic games.

Four weeks into the condensed 66-game NBA season, the enthusiasm seems to have worn off a bit and the rust is showing as many of the league's teams are struggling to find consistency. Teams are having issues with chemistry, several key players have sustained injuries and every team is playing at least one stretch of three games in three nights as well as four games in five, and even five games in six nights. That's a lot of games, and not a lot of quality practice time.

Logically, we want to attribute things like injury, sloppy play, lack of understanding of a coach's scheme, etc. to the fact that teams are playing much more often than during a full, 82-game regular season therefor they must be tired, hurt and practice-deprived.

I crunched some numbers and noticed that our conspiracy theories surrounding the shortened season could be off the mark. Lets take the Lakers, for example. Last season, the Lakers played 82 regular season games in 170 days over approximately 24.3 weeks. If you break those numbers down, the Lakers played 3.37 games per week last season. This year, the Lakers will play 66 games in 124 days over 17.7 weeks, thus playing 3.72 games per week. That's only about one third of a game more per week than last season. I'm no statistician (although I took social statistics in college… it was dreadful) but I don't think that figure is of any true significance.

Basically, the number of games being played in this shortened time frame is proportional to the number of games played over a full-length season last year.

There is a learning curve every season, especially through the first 20-30 games. It usually takes teams a while to get their ducks in a row even when they have a full-length training camp and preseason.

Here's where it gets tricky. What about all of the back-to-back games? Many have suggested that the back-to-back sets, and especially the back-to-back-to-back games would give younger teams an advantage because their youthful bodies can bounce back quicker than the veteran players.

Guess what? Age doesn't seem to be a big factor when it comes to back-to-back games, at least not yet.

Take a look at the five oldest teams in the league (Dallas being the eldest) and their records when it comes to wins and losses on zero days rest:

Blazers: 1-3
Suns: 1-2
Celtics: 1-2
Lakers: 3-3
Mavericks: 5-2

Now lets look at how the five youngest teams in the league (Minnesota being the youngest) fared on zero days rest:

TWolves: 1-4
Wizards: 0-3
Kings: 3-3
Bobcats: 2-4
Thunder: 5-1

Again, I'm no math major but it doesn't appear as though we can draw any correlation between age and wins/losses of games played on consecutive days. Because it's still early in this season, this could change down the road, but as of now, those young, fresh legs aren't making much of a difference as wisdom and experience has proved tough as well.

What role could back-to-back games play over the duration of the season? I'll let you be the judge.

I looked at the schedules of four teams and compared them to last year in terms of how many times they played on consecutive nights (back-to-backs). Below are the number of times the Clippers, Celtics, Lakers and Mavericks played on consecutive days/nights.

2010-2011 2011-2012
Clippers 23 20
Celtics 19 19
Lakers 15 19
Mavericks 17 20

While the Celtics are playing exactly the same number of back-to-backs as last season, the other three teams are in a different boat. The Lakers and Mavs will both play more back-to-backs this season with LA playing 26 percent more back-to-backs than last year and 18 percent more for Dallas. Meanwhile the Clippers are playing 13 percent fewer back-to-back games than they played last season. Lucky them!

This tidbit does seem significant. It looks like the Lakers got lucky last season, as 15 back-to-backs is quite different from the Clippers down the hall who played 23 such sets. Playing 26 percent more back-to-backs than in the previous year has to hurt, especially as the Lakers are the second oldest team in the NBA. I would think it will catch up to them eventually, well, everyone but Kobe that is (unless his wrist actually falls off at some point), and I guess time will tell.

I wonder if travel might be more of an issue than playing on consecutive nights, especially because plenty of the back-to-back scenarios involve travel. Only eight teams have road records of .500 or better. That's pretty pathetic.

At the end of the day, I think true talent will win out despite age, long flights, late nights and little rest between games. As mentioned above, the condensed schedule isn't really much tighter than a normal schedule. Look at the league's top two teams. The Bulls are the 19th oldest team in the league, they are 12-3 overall (7-3 on the road) Derrick Rose is injured and they are 6-2 on zero days rest. Conversely we have one of the league's youngest teams in the Thunder who are also riding high at 12-3 overall (6-2 on the road) and 5-1 on zero days rest. Both teams follow the trend that at this point in the season, age isn't much of a factor and that back-to-back games haven't proved detrimental just yet. With more than two thirds of the season left to play, we have plenty of time to dissect and diagnose the failures of struggling teams.

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Veteran Teams try to get out to early leads in the short season

************************NBA WEST***********************
Association Astronomy Western Conference

Everyone’s pick to come out of the West is of course the Oklahoma City Thunder. Why shouldn’t they be the favorite? Off to a 10-2 start they sport the best record in the league, although the Northwest Division might be the toughest in the Association this year with The Thunder, Portland and Denver fighting it out. Kevin Durant is considered the toughest check in the league but his Robin, Russell Westbrook is off to a slow start in 2012. While averaging 18 points per game to go with four rebounds and five assist, he’s also turning the rock over almost four times per game. Westbrook and Durant have also already had a tension filled moment on the sidelines and the rumor-mill has the former UCLA Bruin not that comfortable being a number two, to one of the league’s true superstars. While the Durantula is busting out almost 26 points a night, he’s getting lots of help from James Harden. “The Beard”, is having a breakout season at almost 17 points per outing. Kendrick Perkins is as nasty as ever on the defensive side and a lot slimmer which should help his defense and rebounding. The key for the still young Thunder is teamwork. Will winning be the most important objective or will all the egos find room to drowned out coach Scott Brooks voice of reason?
Oklahoma City is arguably the most athletic team in the West. But will they use that athleticism to support each other on the defensive end and on the glass. If they’re able to do that and not care who scores the points in crunch time, this could be the year they get out of the West.

In the Pacific, David Stern’s medaling has not shut the Lakers window just yet it appears. Los Angeles would have been arguably the favorite to come out of the West again, had the Chris Paul trade not been vetoed. Instead the Lake Show banished a pouting Lamar Odom to Dallas which hasn’t seemed to make much of a difference and Pau Gasol is still on board. At 8-4 overall, Kobe Bryant seems to be loving life without the Zen Master’s Triangle Offense. The Black Mamba is getting touches whenever and wherever he likes and put together back to back 40 plus nights! Bryant dropped 48 on the Suns and turned around on the second half of a back to back to drain 40 more on the road in a win at Utah Wednesday Night. 33 years young never looked so good. To bad we all can’t afford a little blood plasma therapy injection in Germany to make the old knees feel good again! While Kobe continues to just be Kobe, it’s what new coach Mike Brown has done with the rest of the squad that’s impressive. This Lakers team is actually playing defense again! A lack of effort on the defensive end bought the former back to back champions a one-way sweep ticket out of the playoffs last year but that laziness seems to be a thing of the past. Los Angeles is not only first in rebounding but also fourth in points allowed! Andrew Bynum has blossomed into the best offensive center in the game, while Pau Gasol continues to add offense when needed. It’s no secret the Lakers lack a star point guard but if reserve Steve Blake continues to shoot 40% from the field and play good pick and roll defense it might not matter. It’s all very simple for the Lakers in terms of their ability to get out of the West. Kobe Bryant must stay healthy along with Bynum and Gasol. If health prevails and the defensive progress continues, the Lakers could end up as the team no one wants to see in the playoffs.

The surprise team out of the early division leaders has to be the San Antonio Spurs. At 7-4 overall, San Antonio has put together a perfect 7-0 record at the AT&T Center. Now on the flip side, they haven’t been able to close a game on the road which Greg Popovich knows is not a good sign. While it is early the loss of leading scorer Manu Ginobili to a broken left hand for two months will no doubt catch up with the Spurs. They are third in the league in scoring with guard Gary Neal back from injury but with an aging Tim Duncan along with a slower Tony Parker, how long can they keep it up? A 23rd defensive ranking in the league, can not possibly sit well with Popovich who knows the longer it takes his team to figure out a way to lock it down on the defensive end, the longer its going to be before they find any consistency, especially on the road. One advantage the Spurs have is the Southwest is probably the weakest division in the NBA. Dallas is obviously weaker with the loss of Tyson Chandler and J.J. Berea to free-agency. The Mavericks are also fat off last year’s championship and already appear to be lacking that determination that won them the title last season. Memphis, who knocked the Spurs out of last years post-season lost Shane Battier to the Heat and will be missing an injured Zack Randolph for at least two months. Both Houston and New Orleans are feisty but lack the star-power it takes to be a serious challenger for any division title. The Southwest appears to be a two-team race in which the defending champion Mavericks will eventually win once they become interested enough sometime probably in February.

***************NBA EAST***********************
With about one sixth of the strike shortened NBA season in the books you only have to look to the stars, to find success. You see professional basketball is the one sport where the stars never lie. Either you have them on you team and you win, or you don’t and you lose. Not even a month in, the leagues best are already carrying their squads to early success. Call it a reading of what’s to come.

In the Eastern Conference, Miami’s big three appear to be on a mission after last season’s debacle in the NBA finals. The Heat lead the southwest with an 8-2 record powered by LeBron James 30 point per game average. It’s no surprise Dewayne Wade and Chris Bosh have also taken responsibility after last season’s disappointment with wins over Dallas and Boston to go with three blowout victories as well. The bottom line on the Heat is they have the most star power of any team. The addition of Shane Battier adds defensive toughness to their roster and about the only thing they lack is a true inside presence as Bosh is more of a soft forward. With only ten games in the books they already appear to have a different swagger then last season and are playing like the team to beat overall in 2012.

In Chicago, there is a scent of Rose all over the city that originates from the United Center. Derrick Rose is once again playing like the most valuable player and it shows in the Bulls 9-2 record. He started the season with special Christmas gift for the Lakers in the form of a game winner at the Staples Center. He hasn’t skipped a beat sense. Rose is averaging 19 points, eight assist and three rebounds per game. But the Bulls have three others averaging double-digits and this is where they are more formable than last season. The addition of Rip Hamilton adds scoring off the bench, while Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng are capable of twenty point nights at any time. But defense is again where the Bulls are resting their horns allowing just 87 points per game, second in the entire league. This combination is capable of reaching the finals in June and we’re not talking about only in the East.

The surprise team of the Eastern Conference hails from the Atlantic Division. The Philadelphia 76ers are the talk of the Association so far, with a 7-2 mark, two games in front of both the Knicks and Celtics. Without a top superstar on the roster, how is this happening? Andre Iguodala is the closest thing Philly has to a big-timer. Elton Brand is still not the same after his Achilles injury, Jrue Holiday continues to be a work in progress, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams are good role players? The credit so far has to go to Coach Doug Collins. Some how he has this team not only playing defense but now scoring as well, something they couldn’t do last season. The Sixers allowing just 85 points per game. That ranks number one in the league in defense. But they now score at clip of 101 points per night, good for third overall. The secret appears to be balance. If you count Brand’s 9.5 a game, Philadelphia has seven players scoring double-digits per night. They can afford an off night from two or three players and still produce enough to win. This scoring by committee theme, could mean big trouble for the rest of the Atlantic and all the East when the post-season arrives and the 76ers hold home court advantage in a couple of series. They are a blue-collar Philly like team and the sleepy 76ers fan base will soon awaken and get behind this bunch full force. On Thursday we’ll examine the star power in the West and how it’s pushed the young Thunder along with the veteran Spurs and Lakers to division leads, while the Blazers are ready to take their place with the elite despite the retirement of Brandon Roy and Greg Oden again.